सिंहदरबार संवाददाता
Kathmandu. The sector that represents the state of production, investment, consumption, savings, employment, and income of the economy is known as the real sector. The size of the economy and its growth indicate the state of the economy. According to the National Statistics Office, the initial estimate of the size of the Nepalese economy in the fiscal year 2080-81 is 57 trillion four billion 840 million. In the last fiscal year 2079-80, the revised estimate was 53 trillion 480 billion, while in the fiscal year 2078-79, the final details have been made public that the size of the economy will be 49 trillion 760 billion.
Similarly, the initial estimate of the economic growth rate (GDP annual growth rate) for the fiscal year 2080-81 is 3.54 percent at basic prices and 3.87 percent at consumer prices. The revised estimate of the economic growth rate in the fiscal year 2079-80 is 2.3 percent at basic prices and 1.95 percent at consumer prices. According to the latest data, the economic growth rate in the fiscal year 2078-79 has been fixed at 5.28 percent at basic prices and 5.63 percent at consumer prices.
According to the data published by the National Statistics Office on Asoj 30, 2081, the country’s gross domestic product has been initially estimated to increase by 2.1 percent at basic prices in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 208-81 compared to the fourth quarter of the previous fiscal year 2078-80. The main factors behind the positive growth of the economy in this quarter are the increase in agricultural production and tourism arrivals, as well as the increase in total value added in the hotel sector. In addition, the growth in the trade sector, the growth in transportation, and the growth in public administration have led to positive growth in the overall economy. In addition, the country’s unemployment rate is 11.4 percent as of the fiscal year 2079-80.
Government Sector
Government Sector (Budget) The budget for the fiscal year 2081-82 presented by the Government of Nepal to the Federal Parliament on 15th Jestha 2081 estimated total expenditure at Rs. 1860 billion 300 million, current expenditure at Rs. 1140 billion 660 million, capital expenditure at Rs. 352 billion 350 million, financial management expenditure at Rs. 367 billion 280 million and revenue mobilization at Rs. 1260 billion 300 million, foreign grants at Rs. 52 billion 330 million, foreign loans at Rs. 217 billion 670 million and internal loans at Rs. 330 billion.
According to the statistics published by Nepal Rastra Bank for the month of Kartik 2081-82, the total expenditure of the Government of Nepal is Rs. 415.2 billion, current expenditure is Rs. 292.53 billion, capital expenditure is Rs. 34.53 billion, and financial management expenditure is Rs. 87.96 billion. In the same period of the previous fiscal year, the total expenditure, current expenditure, capital expenditure, and financial management expenditure of the Government of Nepal were Rs. 355.63 billion, Rs. 271.17 billion, Rs. 29.99 billion, and Rs. 54.47 billion, respectively. It is a good thing that the total expenditure and capital expenditure of the Government of Nepal in the current fiscal year 2081-82 have increased based on the total expenditure and capital expenditure of the previous fiscal year.
Similarly, the revenue income of the Government of Nepal has reached Rs 323.24 billion as of Kartik of the current fiscal year 2081-82, while the revenue income of the Government of Nepal was Rs 276.64 billion as of Kartik of the last fiscal year 2080-81. Based on the revenue income, the financial condition of the government has improved. In addition, the Government of Nepal has received Rs 21.32 billion as of foreign debt and Rs 101.5 billion as of internal debt as of Asoj of the current fiscal year 2081-82, while it has received Rs 9.47 billion as of foreign debt and Rs 97.31 billion as of internal debt as of Asoj of the last fiscal year 2080-81. Based on the debt income, the government’s resources appear to be strong during the same period of this year.
External Sector
The external sector includes the country’s balance of payments position and foreign exchange reserves. According to the statistics published by Nepal Rastra Bank, as of Kartik of the current fiscal year 2081-82, merchandise exports were Rs 52.67 billion, merchandise imports were Rs 513.39 billion, and the total merchandise trade deficit was Rs 460.72 billion. As of mid-Kartik of the previous fiscal year, merchandise exports were Rs 50.57 billion, merchandise imports were Rs 512.50 billion, and the total merchandise trade deficit was Rs 461.94 billion. Compared to the same period of the previous fiscal year, there has been an improvement in exports and trade deficit in the current fiscal year, while imports have increased only marginally. In addition, as of Kartik of the current fiscal year 2081/82, remittance inflow was Rs 521.63 billion, current account surplus was Rs 143.42 billion, balance of payments surplus was Rs 205.83 billion, and foreign exchange reserves were Rs 2255.35 billion.
As of Kartik of the previous fiscal year 2080-81, remittance inflow was Rs 477.96 billion, current account surplus was Rs 97.10 billion, balance of payments surplus was Rs 150.24 billion, and foreign exchange reserves were Rs 1696.78 billion. The situation of remittance, current account surplus, balance of payments, and foreign exchange reserves in the current fiscal year has been stronger than the same period of the previous fiscal year. The country’s foreign exchange reserves as of mid-Kartik 2081 are capable of supporting 15.1 months of imports of goods and services.
State of the Financial Sector
As of Kartik of the current fiscal year 2081-82, there were a total of Rs 6644.23 billion in deposits in class A, B and C banks and financial institutions, while Rs 5912.79 billion in loans were disbursed from the same institutions. This means that banks and financial institutions are still unable to invest and have accumulated investmentable assets. The interest rates on deposits and loans of banks and financial institutions have also decreased. The non-performing loans of banks and financial institutions are 3.66 percent. Currently, the average interest rate on deposits is 5.01 percent and the average interest rate on loans is 9.07 percent. Financial access is also improving. The number of deposit accounts, loan accounts, and digital banking users is increasing. The credit flow is weak compared to the deposits of the country’s oldest and largest bank, Rastriya Banijya Bank. The bank’s large investable assets are idle. As Rastriya Banijya Bank’s deposits as of Kartik of the current fiscal year were Rs. 428.8 billion and credit flow was Rs. 267.15 billion, the bank’s credit flow is expected to decrease and its profits will also shrink.
Economic Implementation Problems
The lack of increase in capital expenditure by the Government of Nepal, the country’s low export capacity and excessive imports leading to a high trade deficit, a decrease in credit flow compared to deposit collection from banks and financial institutions, industries and factories in the country not operating at full capacity, and millions of the country’s active population living outside the country have not been encouraging due to such reasons. Our main problem is that policies, programs and budgets are good, but they cannot be implemented.
The assistance provided by foreign countries has also not been spent on time. It is ironic that money cannot be spent on one side, while the people do not receive relief on the other, which is directly affecting development. The biggest deficiency in Nepal right now is monitoring. More importantly, there is a lack of a proper system of punishment and reward. Therefore, the challenge for Nepal right now is to make capital work in favor of the poor and disadvantaged classes in the process of development in Nepal. Mega projects require large capital and technology. That has to be obtained from outside Nepal as well. However, when taking it that way, it should be brought according to our needs, not based on the interests of multinational organizations or companies. While we are talking about a socialist-oriented economy, we should not forget that Nepal is now in a federal structure.
New mechanism, door to prosperity
The new constitution has ended the 240-year-old autocratic monarchy and replaced it with a democratic republican system. In terms of economic programs after the new constitution, the new constitution will provide a socialist-oriented economy. Oriented towards socialism means taking social security provisions in favor of the poor, the disadvantaged, the disadvantaged, the backward classes, in favor of women and the disabled, and in favor of children and the elderly. However, while taking it forward, mega projects should also be taken along with it.
If we cannot work in a leapfrog manner, we cannot advance development. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a new mechanism for spending. We are in a federal and provincial structure. Policies, programs, and budgets should be tailored to the provinces and local bodies. We should be able to open the door to prosperity for the provinces and locals by implementing the possibilities available in the federal, provincial, and local bodies and by efficiently managing the challenges that have been seen. It seems that the government should work to promote integrity, transparency, and accountability.(The author is a member of the Bagmati Provincial Assembly, President of the Nepal Intellectuals Council, and former Vice President of the National Planning Commission)
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प्रतिक्रिया दिनुहोस्