Kathmandu. NATO leaders are set to sign off on a defense spending pledge at their Hague summit on Wednesday to meet US President Donald Trump’s demand for a key figure of five percent of gross domestic product (GDP).
Here are the details of what NATO is signing up to:
Five percent? Not really – Trump has insisted that NATO countries must hit the five percent mark. That’s well ahead of the two percent baseline currently required by the alliance.
Only a handful of allies, such as Poland and the Baltic states, are currently coming close to five percent. The United States itself is down to 3.4 percent in 2024. NATO’s 32 nations have agreed to dedicate 3.5 percent to core military needs and 1.5 percent to broader “defense-related” areas such as cybersecurity and infrastructure by 2035.
That gives Trump the win he wants and some relief to cash-strapped European governments. However, it is still a big ask for many governments and will add billions to budgets in the coming years.
3.5 percent to what?
– The bulk of the spending must still go to NATO’s main focus area: raw military power. The alliance’s members signed off last month on new targets for all the hardware needed to counter the Russian threat. The exact details are secret, but they will include the biggest capacity boost since the Cold War. NATO chief Mark Rutte said it envisions a fivefold increase in the alliance’s air defenses and thousands more tanks and armored vehicles to be added to the arsenal.
Countries will also continue to count billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine in this category.
1.5 percent ?
The rest of the pledge covers a much broader range of areas, from bridges and roads to cybersecurity. While these items may not be immediately obvious, NATO says they are important to help defend against any attack. “You can’t get tanks to the front lines because the roads or bridges or trains can’t handle those tanks and their weight, then clearly they’re useless,” said US NATO ambassador Matthew Whitaker.
NATO officials have acknowledged that much of this spending will already be on the books of national governments and will simply need to be rebranded. For example, Italy has said it believes a long-planned bridge connecting Sicily to the mainland should fall into that category.
Who checks ?
Ensuring that countries stick to the agreement is a key element, as past NATO promises have often not been honored. Officials had initially planned to commit NATO members to a 0.2 percent increase a year until they reached the target.
That was eventually dropped due to opposition from governments unwilling to shoot themselves in the foot. Countries will now have to submit reports to NATO every year to show they are taking action and purchasing the necessary items. There will also be a review in 2029 when NATO comes up with new targets for the necessary weapons and when demands can be adjusted. If they don’t deliver on their promise, it would be an unpleasant prospect for Trump to be left hanging.
Who is exempt ?
That depends on who you ask. Spain, one of NATO’s smallest spenders, claims it doesn’t have to meet the five percent target after striking a separate deal with Russia. But the NATO chief has insisted there is no “opt-out” from the deal and that every country must meet the agreed level.
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