Kathmandu. Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events around the world. Nepal, a mountainous and mountainous country, is at high risk of monsoon-related floods, landslides and other natural disasters.
The second phase of the monsoon, which recently started in Kerala, India, has become active in the Bay of Bengal mixed with the local air system, which is causing heavy rains in south India and has also become active in Nepal from today. According to meteorologist Dr Dharma Raj Upreti, the system is expected to cause heavy rainfall in Assam, Meghalaya, different parts of Nepal and Tibet of India.
There is a possibility of moderate to heavy rainfall in Nepal for the next four days, which has increased the risk in Sindhupalchowk, Gandaki, SudurPaschim and Koshi provinces.
Monsoon conditions and flood risk
According to the Forecast of The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology of Nepal and the Department of Meteorology of India, moderate to heavy rainfall is likely to occur in Sindhupalchowk, Gandaki, Sudur Paschim and Koshi provinces in the next three days. Monsoon is expected to spread across Nepal throughout the week, which may cause heavy rainfall in many places.
There is a high risk of flooding, especially in the Bhotekoshi river area of Sindhupalchowk. The Sindhupalchowk District Administration Office has issued a notice to the locals to remain alert after India and China issued warnings of flooding in this inland river.
Bhotekoshi Rural Municipality, Bahrabise Municipality, Tripurasundari, Sunkoshi, Balefi and Chautara Sangachokgadhi Municipalities of Sindhupalchowk district are at risk of flood and landslide. The highway is likely to be blocked for the next four days and normal life is likely to be affected. Kavrepalanchowk district has also urged people to remain alert in the coastal areas of Bhumlu, Temal and Roshi rural municipalities.
Nepal’s Armed Police Force (APF) has reached the district administration through the security personnel deployed in the Tatopani border area of China about the possibility of excessive rainfall in Tibet. Chief District Officer Kiran Thapa said that such information exchange would be regular in the border areas and the weather in Tibet could affect nepal’s rivers.
According to Dr Upreti, rainfall in Tibet can increase the flow of rivers, but it is necessary to be cautious even if the local rainfall does not cause major damage immediately.
Climate diplomacy and transnational information systems
Nepal, India, China and Bangladesh are connected by common river systems and weather influences. Rivers like Bhotekoshi, Koshi and Gandaki flow through Nepal through Tibet to the low-lying coastal areas of India and Bangladesh, eventually joining the Bay of Bengal.
Floods in these rivers cause huge loss of life and property in all four countries. The development of transnational information systems through climate diplomacy is essential for mitigating such risks. According to Dr Upreti, the flood damage in the low-lying coastal areas can be reduced if China shares weather information in Tibet on time.
Recent Chinese information on the Bhotekoshi River in Sindhupalchowk has confirmed this. Information about the possibility of excessive rainfall in Tibet reached the district administration through Nepal’s Armed Police Force at the Tatopani border, which alerted the local settlements.
India, which led the South Asian country in releasing weather forecasts, has now stopped providing weather data free of cost to the general public. Which has hindered the exchange of information.
The European Union’s Medium-Term Weather Forecasting Center provides 24 hours of free data, but long-term forecasts are charged. There is a lack of such a dedicated system in the Indo-Kush Himalayan region. Although Nepal and other South Asian countries have jointly collaborated on weather forecasting and forecasting systems, this is not enough.
Dr Upreti said it was the need of the hour to develop a common information system connecting these four countries through climate diplomacy. Such a system helps reduce the impact of climate change and extreme weather events.
‘Early warning for all’ and global inspiration
The UN’s ‘Early Warning for All’ initiative aims to ensure that everyone in the world has access to natural disaster forecasting systems by 2027. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has focused this initiative on risk identification, observation, information communication and community preparedness.
The World Disaster Risk Reduction Conference (2023) highlighted the need for cross-country cooperation to reduce the risk of floods and landslides in common river systems in the Indo-Kush Himalayan region.
Nepal can draw inspiration from world-class examples. Countries such as Germany, Austria, and Hungary in Europe’s Danube River basin minimize flood risk through shared data platforms. In the Niger River Basin in Africa, nine countries share information through the Niger Basin Authority.
The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development in the Indo-Kush Himalaya region is working on climate data sharing and flood warning systems among Nepal, India, China and Bangladesh. But this effort needs to be strengthened through climate diplomacy.
Climate justice and nepal’s relevance
Climate change is having an disproportionate impact on the world and a low-emitting country like Nepal is paying a heavy price for it. Nepal contributes only 0.027 percent of the world’s total greenhouse gas emissions.
But the melting of mountains, irregular monsoon and the risk of floods and landslides have put the country at high risk. The recent flood warning in the Bhotekoshi river area of Sindhupalchowk has left the local community in a state of panic. Such incidents highlight nepal’s geographical and socio-economic weaknesses.
Rural communities in the mountainous and mountainous regions of Nepal, especially farmers and marginalized groups, are most affected by the effects of climate change. Floods and landslides destroy agricultural land, settlements and infrastructure, further exacerbating poverty and insecurity.
The flooding of the Koshi river causes extensive damage in the Terai of Nepal, Bihar of India and the coastal areas of Bangladesh. Poor communities living in such areas are most affected. The concept of climate justice demands risk mitigation, adaptation, and compensation, prioritizing such communities.
Nepal has been advocating climate justice in the 2015 Paris Agreement and other international forums. But regional cooperation and local awareness are needed to make these efforts effective. The inter-country information system helps such communities to be alerted and relocated safely.
The risk of monsoon-related floods and landslides in Nepal has highlighted the importance of climate justice, inland information systems and ‘Early Warning for All’ initiatives. The Bhotekoshi flood warning in Sindhupalchowk has shown the possibility of regional cooperation.
Through climate diplomacy, Nepal, India, China and Bangladesh can reduce the risk of disasters in common river systems. Accepting Dr Upreti’s statement, “It is necessary to take action today against tomorrow’s risk. Such steps will enable Nepal to combat the effects of climate change and build a sustainable future.
प्रतिक्रिया दिनुहोस्